Analysis of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Hydrological Responses to Support Water and Food Security in the Tukad Unda Watershed
Abstract
Land-use changes can affect the hydrological characteristics of a watershed by altering the ability of the land surface to infiltrate, retain, and convey rainfall. This study aims to analyze changes in peak flood discharge resulting from land-use changes in the Tukad Unda Watershed between 2014 and 2024 using the Snyder Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) method. The analysis included land-use change identification, runoff coefficient determination, design rainfall analysis, hourly rainfall distribution, effective rainfall estimation, and transformation of effective rainfall into flood hydrographs using the Snyder SUH method. The results showed that the watershed runoff coefficient increased from 0.38 in 2014 to 0.40 in 2024, indicating an increase in the proportion of rainfall contributing to direct runoff. The watershed covers an area of 2,315,048 ha or 231.50 km², with a main river length of 51.8 km and a distance from the outlet to the watershed centroid of 20.4 km. The Snyder SUH was used to characterize the watershed response and transform effective rainfall for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Land-use changes between 2014 and 2024 were also reflected in an increase in Composite Curve Number (CN) from 55.77 to 60.73 and Composite Imperviousness (IMP) from 4.8% to 6.2%. These changes resulted in higher effective rainfall in 2024 compared with 2014. The Snyder SUH modeling indicated an increase in peak discharge, particularly for the 100-year return period, from 55.03 m³/s in 2014 to approximately 119.00 m³/s in 2024. The results indicate that land-use changes in the Tukad Unda Watershed contribute to increased runoff and peak flood discharge. These findings highlight the importance of land-use management that maintains watershed infiltration and water-retention functions as part of efforts to reduce flood risk and support sustainable water resources management.
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